By School of Environment, Resources and Development
4 December, 2024: In a world increasingly affected by climate change, Thailand stands at a critical juncture in its energy transition journey. Can the nation’s power sector achieve a zero-carbon footprint by 2050? The answer lies in the groundbreaking research conducted by Avrojyoti Barua at the School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT). His study, Towards a Zero Carbon Future for Thailand’s Power Sector, under the supervision of Prof. Weerakorn Ongsakul, Professor at the Department of Energy and Climate Change and Prof. Joyasree Roy, Distinguish Professor and Director & Founder SMARTS center, AIT presents a comprehensive and data-driven roadmap to decarbonizing the power sector, using the advanced SWITCH model for energy system optimization.
Thailand’s power sector currently accounts for 35% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. With energy consumption projected to increase by 41% from 2020 to 2030, the urgency of transitioning to renewable energy cannot be overstated. Furthermore, Thailand relies heavily on imported fossil fuels, which comprise approximately 60% of its energy supply. This dependence not only contributes to greenhouse gas emissions but also exposes the nation to the volatility of global energy prices.
A recent analysis of Thailand’s 2023 energy generation mix reveals that natural gas accounts for 59% of the country’s power. Solar and wind contribute 10%, while coal and lignite represent 14%. A smaller share, 13%, comes from hydropower, with the remaining 3% from other sources, including imported energy. To meet Thailand’s 2050 carbon neutrality goals, the country must prioritize a shift from fossil fuels, especially natural gas, to renewable energy
Barua’s study explores three potential pathways: Business-as-Usual (BAU), a Coal Phase-Out scenario, and a Natural Gas Phase-Down scenario. The findings emphasize that achieving decarbonization by 2050 will require substantial investment in renewable energy infrastructure, particularly in solar and wind technologies, along with significant advancements in energy storage.
This two-year study was conducted at AIT, using real-world data from Thailand’s power sector, including energy demand trends, renewable resource availability, and policy frameworks. The SWITCH model used in the research is a powerful tool for long-term energy planning. It enables researchers and policymakers to simulate various power generation scenarios, optimizing decisions for the integration of renewable energy and energy storage systems.
By modelling different scenarios, Barua’s research identifies the economic feasibility and technical requirements for a zero-carbon power system in Thailand. The SWITCH model’s ability to incorporate multiple investment periods and manage the complexities of renewable energy integration makes it invaluable in planning for Thailand’s energy future.
To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, Thailand must expand its renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, while phasing out coal and reducing dependence on natural gas. Investments in energy storage and grid infrastructure will also be critical to managing the intermittent nature of renewable sources.
Barua’s research highlights that these efforts could lead to significant economic benefits, including job creation in the renewable energy sector. Additionally, reducing carbon emissions from the power sector could improve public health by enhancing air quality, potentially lowering healthcare costs.
This research aligns with Thailand’s updated commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030, as outlined in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. Barua’s findings provide a detailed blueprint for how Thailand can meet these targets and contribute to global efforts to combat climate change.
Thailand has a unique opportunity to become a regional leader in sustainable energy. By pursuing renewable energy pathways, it can set a benchmark for other Southeast Asian nations, demonstrating that sustainability and economic development can progress hand in hand.
The results of this study offer a clear, fact-based vision of Thailand’s energy future. With the right investments and policy decisions, Thailand can transition to a cleaner, more resilient power sector, securing both its environmental and economic future.
Avrojyoti Barua’s comprehensive thesis provides an in-depth review of the technical and economic aspects of Thailand’s energy transition. The country is on the brink of an energy revolution, and this research shows the way to achieving zero-carbon power by 2050.
Want to learn more about this energy transition? The complete research will soon be available in AIT’s library and digital library. Thailand’s transition to a zero-carbon electricity sector is essential for a sustainable future. Support the necessary steps to make it happen.
Some glimpse of SWITCH-Thailand in VS Code environment
